NA Agency, Buenos Aires, December 4 — The Monthly Market Expectations Survey (REM) for the last month of 2025 revealed a decrease in the nominal exchange rate and an end-of-year inflation rate above 2%. Inflation of 2.3% and 2.1% The REM, prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA), forecasts a monthly inflation rate of 2.3% for November and a general level of 2.1% for December (+0.1 pp compared to the previous REM). Regarding the Core Consumer Price Index (IPC), the REM participants' estimates for November were 2.2% (0.2 pp higher than the previous forecast). This would mean an increase of 0.4 percentage points (pp). A Cheaper Dollar The BCRA's survey projects a nominal exchange rate of $1,472.9 for December, which is $27.1 below the October REM, with an expected annual variation of 44.3% (-2.7 pp). This figure aligns with the expectations of private consultancies, which would range between 2.3% and 2.5%. Economic Activity Improvement The survey results show a 0.5% increase in seasonally adjusted GDP for the third quarter compared to the second. This would reverse the decline projected in the previous REM (+1.0 pp). On average, a real GDP growth of 4.4% is forecast, higher than the 2024 average (+0.5 pp compared to the previous REM). Unemployment figures remain at 7.5% of the Economically Active Population, with a further decline to 7.2% expected in the fourth quarter of this year. Foreign Trade Forecasts For foreign trade in goods for 2025, exports are projected to total US$85.667 billion (US$935 million more than the previous survey) and imports US$77.140 billion (US$695 million more than the previous REM). The expected annual trade surplus is US$8.527 billion, US$240 million more than the previous forecast.
